Trade analyst Girish Johar agrees and says, “Presently, we know that there are no releases at the box office. Besides, films are also not doing well. It is obvious that the IPL has been creating a lot of curiosity. In earlier days, critical matches used to impact the business of cinema of particular shows. But this year, there are no major releases, so the impact is not there at all because there are no BO audiences. So, technically, it’s a clean slate for the IPL. They have no competition. I hope that box office turns around. Cinemas are also trying to show matches to encash the IPL craze.”
But Akshaye Rathi feels that both cricket and cinema can co-exist. He said, “The IPL has been there for more than a decade. By now we have reached a stage where all sorts of entertainment avenues can co-exist. We have seen Bholaa coming around IPL, sticking around, and doing the expected numbers. Beyond a point, the only thing that can impact a film’s fate is its merits and demerits.”
Atul Mohan adds, “The IPL attracts a massive audience, including people who may not be regular movie-goers but would be interested in watching a big cricket match. Therefore, releasing a movie during this time can lead to direct competition with the IPL, which could result in lower box office collections. It is a risk that many studios are not willing to take. Based on past experiences, Bollywood has become more cautious about releasing major movies during the IPL season. Instead, the producers prefer to release their films during periods when there are no major distractions, to ensure that their movies have a better chance of success. Bollywood’s decision to avoid releasing major films during the IPL season is a strategic move that is driven by the need to maximize box office collections. By avoiding competition with the IPL, producers can ensure that their movies have a better chance of success and can attract a larger audience.”
The IPL is two weeks old and will finish by the end of May and some of the films that are slated for release during the period are mostly small films except for Salman Khan’s Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan which releases on April 21. The other films are Nawazuddin Siddiqui’s Jogira Sa Ra Ra, the Telugu film Chhatrapati and Namashi Chakraborty-starrer Bad Boy.
Salman Khan is returning to the box office after four years and on EID, which has been his lucky date. But the trade is concerned about the date on which the festival falls this year.
Johar said, “The exact date of Eid is yet to be announced by the religious authorities. Having said that, Salman Khan traditionally always has a bumper opening on Eid. If Eid is on Friday announced as a Holiday, then Friday will be a good start. There are no two ways. If Eid is on Saturday, then Friday might be a mediocre start with collections going up on Saturday and Sunday. It’s a wait-and-watch situation. Salman Khan always draws crowds on Eid. Even the audiences feel that it’s kind of a gift from his side. If everything falls into place, it will have a very big opening.”
Rathi adds, “It’s difficult to predict right now for KKBKKJ, but with Salman Khan’s stardom bringing in masses and family audiences, it should open to 15+ crores. This is Salman Khan coming on Eid after four years. So, there’s significant euphoria and hope around it. Now the hope is that the film turns out to be great. Fingers crossed.”
The first quarter of 2023 has been made respectable by Pathaan and the Ranbir Kapoor-Shraddha Kapoor-starrer Tu Jhoothi Main Makkaar. Rathi said, “The first quarter has been reasonably good with Pathaan really being the cherry on the cake and doing the numbers no Hindi film has been able to do till now. It’s shown that the markets are absolutely ready to accept cinema as long as it respects the time, money, and intelligence of the audiences. With Mission Impossible and Fast & Furious coming up, we will see people coming back to the theatres in unprecedented numbers.”
Atul Mohan adds, “In 2019, the first quarter contributed 1100 crore rupees, which was 25% of the entire box office earnings of 4400 crore rupees. In 2020, until the pandemic hit in mid-March, the earnings were 650 crores, and in 2021 and 2022, the pandemic caused significant losses. So far this year, there have been only two successful films, with Pathaan being the major contributor and Tu Jhoothi Main Makkaar being the other. Pathaan alone has contributed 75% of the earnings. Bholaa which was released at the end of the quarter has managed to bring the first quarter earnings to a respectable level.”
